I’m not one to sound the climate change alarm every time a hurricane or other tropical storm forms. I’m from South Carolina so I’ve seen more than my fair share. But there’s a storm currently churning in the Persian Gulf region, Cyclone Gonu, with the potential to pack the very one-two-three punch that a group of tough-minded retired warriors warned about in their report National Security and the Threat of Climate Change.
This cyclone, expected to be the strongest storm on record in the area, is threatening oil production facilities, shipping lanes and U.S. military facilities in the region — proof that intense storms half a world away can have serious consequences on America’s economy and military capability. And yet another reason for us to take steps to promote our own energy security here at home through a market-based cap and trade system that promotes the development of new energy innovations.
Few things are as unstable as Middle East petro-politics and Mother Nature. Watch out when the two converge.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 5th, 2007 at 12:11 pm and is filed under Uncategorized . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
June 6th, 2007 at 12:59 pm
If one overlooks the human suffering (sadly), the energy impacts are likely to be the following.
1) Minimal and no oil exports out of the Persian Gulf for 4 to 7 days (and another day+ delay as empty tankers waiting outside the PG rush inside).
2) Perhaps damage to navigational aids that will slow capacity and transit times after the storm.
3) Likely damage to Oman’s oil exporting terminal, taking about 3/4 of a million b/day off the world markets. Also their LNG terminal. Perhaps for a few weeks or for many months, depending upon the damage.
This disruption to the supply lines, coupled with record low US inventories will lead to shortfalls in West Coast imports of gasoline (some effect East of the Rockies, but less).
My prediction, $5.50 to $6 gas price spike in California, Las Vegas and Phoenix in late July and/or August.
If we were not so close to Peak Oil, and there was more slack in the supply chain, the impact would have been minimal. But things are tight.
Now add a Gulf of Mexico hurricane in there and things will get interesting.