1) Minimal and no oil exports out of the Persian Gulf for 4 to 7 days (and another day+ delay as empty tankers waiting outside the PG rush inside).

2) Perhaps damage to navigational aids that will slow capacity and transit times after the storm.

3) Likely damage to Oman’s oil exporting terminal, taking about 3/4 of a million b/day off the world markets. Also their LNG terminal. Perhaps for a few weeks or for many months, depending upon the damage.

This disruption to the supply lines, coupled with record low US inventories will lead to shortfalls in West Coast imports of gasoline (some effect East of the Rockies, but less).

My prediction, $5.50 to $6 gas price spike in California, Las Vegas and Phoenix in late July and/or August.

If we were not so close to Peak Oil, and there was more slack in the supply chain, the impact would have been minimal. But things are tight.

Now add a Gulf of Mexico hurricane in there and things will get interesting.